Globe Editorial: From the end of the pandemic to rising interest rates, what are the odds in 2022?

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Twelve months ago, we fearlessly predicted what was to come in 2021.

We even managed to do some things. We predicted a federal election, ending with another minority government. We said Canada would end the year with more people employed than before the pandemic and the unemployment rate would drop below 7%. We said there was no chance the Bank of Canada would raise its benchmark interest rate in 2021, while correctly predicting that the market would nonetheless push the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond. above 1%.

We said that by the end of 2021, every Canadian who wanted two shots of the COVID-19 vaccine would have received it – and that the death toll from the pandemic would be lower in the second quarter of the year compared to at first.

Then there are the things we didn’t quite understand. We thought the Tokyo Summer Olympics might be postponed for the second time. We gave odds of 50-50 for the year ending with Meng Wanzhou still in Vancouver and the two Michaels still imprisoned in China. And despite forecasting an economic rebound, we expected the stock market to be struggling with the S & P / TSX Composite Index ending the year lower. We also expected crude oil prices to remain below US $ 60 per barrel.

So what does 2022 have in store? The Globe and Mail’s editorial team are once again reckless enough to write a book about the likelihood of various things happening or not. Place your bets.

CANADIAN POLICY

Probability of a federal election: 0%

Probability of ending the year with a minority government: 100%

Odds of the year ending with Justin Trudeau as prime minister: 99 percent

Odds of Premier Doug Ford’s government re-elected in Ontario: 67%

Chances that the government of Prime Minister François Legault will be re-elected in Quebec: 89%

AMERICAN POLICY

Odds of the Republican Party winning a majority in the US House of Representatives in the November midterm election: 82%

Chances of having a Republican majority in the Senate: 43%

THE ECONOMY

The unemployment rate in Canada, which was 6% in November, will be lower next November: 76%

Probability of unemployment to fall below 5 percent: 39 percent

Probability that the Bank of Canada will increase interest rates at least once: 94%

Probability of more than three rate increases: 21%

Chances of inflation at the end of 2022 greater than 4%: 35%

Probability of the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield ending the year above 2%: 71%

Probability that the S & P / TSX Composite Index ends the year up: 37%

ENERGY

There is a good chance that, in a year, West Texas Intermediate crude will be above US $ 80 per barrel: 25%

It is likely to be less than $ 50: 25%

Probability that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will be completed within the next 12 months: 11%

THE PANDEMIC

Likelihood of vaccines being approved for children under five: 99%

Percentage of Canadian adults who will have received a booster injection by the end of the year: 85%

Percentage who received more than one booster injection: 17%

COVID-19 death toll in Canada likely in 2022 to be lower than in 2021: 80%

Probability that the number of hospitalizations in the second semester of 2022 will be lower than that of the first semester: 92%

Probability of the pandemic becoming endemic: 86%

SPORTS

Probability of a financially troubled US NHL team moving to Canada: 37%

Probability that baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays will strike a deal to play half of their home games in Montreal: 31%

Odds of playing Stanley Cup Finals: 100%

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